All statistics released for forecasts into trade, inflation and fuel prices have suggested that things are going to get more expensive.

So it was inevitable that the Government would come with a Supplementary Budget to counter inflation and in doing so announce the key policy items aimed at assisting citizens especially the vulnerable groups.

There will be an additional $150 top up to the Pension Benefit, $100 top up to the Disability Benefit and the Samoa National Provident Fund will also implement a two per cent special interim dividend, for payout on the 23rd of January 2023.

Even before the budget was announced indicators had been given by the Government that food and fuel prices were going to rise.

The warning shots were fired at the Small Islands Developing States Forum when the Samoan Government forecasted food prices would rise. Then a week later, the Ministry of Finance in its review of the fuel prices announced that the US Dollar had continued to strengthen and was up by five per cent.

The impact of this was anticipated by the Government and they have realised that the people who are low and middle income earners will be gravely affected and need to be given some relief.

Is the relief in the budget enough to mitigate inflation for a long term impact? It is not because there is very little focus on capital works and enhancing exports which means that in the future we are going to expect a similar situation.

The appropriation of the funds as highlighted by the Minister of Finance Mulipola Anarosa Ale Molio’o was put together following a rigorous review by the Ministry of Finance ensuring that savings from unutilised and underutilised appropriations are redirected to finance initiatives most needed to sustain development for the remaining months of the current fiscal year.

This is indeed a short term fix to the greater problem we will be seeing at the end of next year or six months down the line. The appropriations have been taken from a number of capital works which have been stalled and will be completed later.

What has happened is that the burden has just been pushed forward without any real thought to how to become resilient. The key thing here is implementing already discussed methods on how to decrease the food import bill. As Samoans, the reliance on imported food needs to stop.

Then the Minister announced that the overall effect of the First Supplementary budget will shift the projected budget deficit to 3.2 per cent of GDP from the 3.5 per cent as announced in the Main Estimates.

She said this decrease in the deficit is indicative of ongoing efforts by the Government to closely monitor existing appropriations with the sole intention of prudent financial management.

As of January 1, 2023 food prices especially for meat products will be higher than usual. The Government announced a massive reduction in import taxes for vegetables, yet the argument from across the floor was that Samoans did not like eating vegetables. This is the way to go if we are to become self -reliant.

Government’s announcement for expenses includes $100,000 allocated for the Prime Minister and her Chief Executive Officer to travel abroad next year. She was away just two weeks ago. The Prime Minister is becoming quite a globetrotter. Perhaps there was a need to take this money and add onto the welfare benefits.

For the short term, the budget will absorb the inflation shocks but in March or April, the Government could be feeling the pinch again.

This is according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) who said in their latest report that global trade contracted in the third quarter of 2022 and is expected to get worse in 2023.

UNCTAD's current assessment of trade "indicates that the value of global trade will decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022 both for goods and for services."

The combination of rising interest rates and record-high global debt levels raises concerns about debt sustainability, especially for highly indebted governments in an environment of tightening regulations, said UNCTAD.

The final point is that the national debt levels are increasing because of the need to have outside budget financing facilities which come as part aid and grants and part loans.

Not being able to grow the local industries, slowing or delaying capital works and continued reliance on imported food will exacerbate the current situation.